Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Railway Materials Company Limited (000927.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.74 - $13.86$12.98
Multi-Stage$8.22 - $9.13$8.67
Blended Fair Value$10.82
Current Price$2.61
Upside314.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.98%1.80%0.020.000.000.030.120.110.020.010.010.02
YoY Growth--19,036.63%-88.36%-97.38%-71.69%9.54%462.39%67.78%-1.62%-49.58%41.37%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.00%0.03%1.03%2.71%2.41%0.37%0.27%0.15%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)474.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)271.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.8759.2935.58
Cash Retained (M)271.06271.06271.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.87-59.29-35.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)176.19211.77235.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,050.596,050.596,050.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate-7.54%-7.54%-7.54%
Growth Rate-6.41%-5.41%-4.41%
Fair Value$11.74$12.98$13.86
Upside / Downside349.76%397.18%431.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)474.34448.66424.37401.39379.66359.10369.87
Payout Ratio42.86%52.28%61.71%71.14%80.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.28234.58261.89285.56305.89323.19342.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-7.54%-7.54%-7.54%
Growth Rate-6.41%-5.41%-4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)251.01253.70256.38
Year 2 PV (M)299.88306.32312.83
Year 3 PV (M)349.89361.23372.80
Year 4 PV (M)401.07418.49436.47
Year 5 PV (M)453.44478.19504.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,002.1950,622.1953,355.37
Equity Value (M)49,757.4952,440.1255,237.87
Shares Outstanding (M)6,050.596,050.596,050.59
Fair Value$8.22$8.67$9.13
Upside / Downside215.08%232.07%249.78%

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