Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Port Development Co., Ltd. (000905.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.23 - $55.14$51.67
Multi-Stage$8.34 - $9.11$8.72
Blended Fair Value$30.20
Current Price$8.20
Upside268.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS107.79%1.88%0.280.160.220.020.160.010.180.100.070.14
YoY Growth--71.60%-27.11%1,360.88%-90.64%2,164.90%-95.99%80.37%38.87%-47.82%-40.66%
Dividend Yield--3.67%2.49%3.07%0.20%2.27%0.12%1.92%1.01%0.52%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)205.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.1225.7015.42
Cash Retained (M)41.4241.4241.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.12-25.70-15.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.3015.7226.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)741.60741.60741.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.23$51.67$55.14
Upside / Downside183.31%530.15%572.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)205.61218.97233.21248.37264.51281.70290.15
Payout Ratio79.86%81.88%83.91%85.94%87.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.19179.31195.69213.45232.69253.53268.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)166.77168.35169.93
Year 2 PV (M)169.29172.51175.76
Year 3 PV (M)171.74176.67181.69
Year 4 PV (M)174.13180.83187.72
Year 5 PV (M)176.46184.99193.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,326.235,583.495,850.59
Equity Value (M)6,184.626,466.836,759.53
Shares Outstanding (M)741.60741.60741.60
Fair Value$8.34$8.72$9.11
Upside / Downside1.70%6.34%11.16%

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