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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.,Ltd. (000895.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.37 - $39.20$28.73
Multi-Stage$37.30 - $40.97$39.10
Blended Fair Value$33.92
Current Price$24.74
Upside37.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.01%4.31%1.411.811.941.721.620.561.451.162.050.91
YoY Growth---22.45%-6.67%12.93%5.99%187.35%-61.00%24.57%-43.25%126.36%-1.87%
Dividend Yield--5.21%6.79%7.49%5.92%3.96%1.44%5.51%4.54%9.08%4.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,143.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,700.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,443.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,028.66642.91385.75
Cash Retained (M)2,443.072,443.072,443.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,028.66-642.91-385.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.411,800.162,057.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,464.663,464.663,464.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$21.37$28.73$39.20
Upside / Downside-13.64%16.15%58.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,143.285,231.335,320.895,411.985,504.635,598.865,766.83
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,700.213,138.793,591.594,058.984,541.325,038.985,334.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)2,923.472,952.492,981.52
Year 2 PV (M)3,115.723,177.903,240.70
Year 3 PV (M)3,279.623,378.293,478.91
Year 4 PV (M)3,417.623,555.403,697.29
Year 5 PV (M)3,532.003,710.873,896.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)112,966.91118,687.81124,638.18
Equity Value (M)129,235.34135,462.76141,933.52
Shares Outstanding (M)3,464.663,464.663,464.66
Fair Value$37.30$39.10$40.97
Upside / Downside50.77%58.04%65.59%

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