Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PKU HealthCare Corp.,Ltd. (000788.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.28 - $3.57$2.88
Multi-Stage$7.45 - $8.22$7.83
Blended Fair Value$5.35
Current Price$6.14
Upside-12.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.30%-7.51%0.080.010.050.030.020.040.030.010.050.12
YoY Growth--1,099.95%-85.96%42.79%42.81%-45.66%34.43%124.25%-70.36%-61.38%-28.92%
Dividend Yield--1.35%0.12%0.64%0.26%0.36%0.68%0.37%0.19%0.38%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)143.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.7217.9510.77
Cash Retained (M)95.3295.3295.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.72-17.95-10.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.6077.3784.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.90595.90595.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-2.95%-1.95%-0.95%
Fair Value$2.28$2.88$3.57
Upside / Downside-62.80%-53.17%-41.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)143.61140.81138.07135.38132.74130.16134.06
Payout Ratio33.62%44.90%56.17%67.45%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.2863.2277.5691.31104.50117.14124.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-2.95%-1.95%-0.95%
Year 1 PV (M)59.4660.0760.68
Year 2 PV (M)68.6070.0271.46
Year 3 PV (M)75.9678.3380.75
Year 4 PV (M)81.7685.1888.71
Year 5 PV (M)86.1990.7395.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,067.474,281.384,504.20
Equity Value (M)4,439.444,665.714,901.25
Shares Outstanding (M)595.90595.90595.90
Fair Value$7.45$7.83$8.22
Upside / Downside21.33%27.52%33.96%

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