Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sealand Securities Co., Ltd. (000750.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.77 - $2.99$2.30
Multi-Stage$3.01 - $3.31$3.16
Blended Fair Value$2.73
Current Price$4.55
Upside-39.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.94%14.49%0.090.120.100.180.150.140.170.150.130.05
YoY Growth---22.42%17.77%-45.59%22.75%8.35%-16.03%9.41%13.26%143.35%131.21%
Dividend Yield--2.28%3.49%2.95%4.93%3.36%3.17%2.92%3.80%2.29%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)949.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)376.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)572.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.91118.6971.22
Cash Retained (M)572.59572.59572.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.91-118.69-71.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)382.68453.89501.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,530.036,530.036,530.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate0.27%1.27%2.27%
Fair Value$1.77$2.30$2.99
Upside / Downside-61.16%-49.43%-34.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)949.55961.65973.90986.31998.871,011.601,041.95
Payout Ratio39.70%49.76%59.82%69.88%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)376.96478.51582.58689.23798.50910.44963.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate0.27%1.27%2.27%
Year 1 PV (M)443.31447.73452.15
Year 2 PV (M)500.03510.05520.17
Year 3 PV (M)548.05564.61581.50
Year 4 PV (M)588.23612.05636.58
Year 5 PV (M)621.36652.97685.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,979.9917,843.7318,742.26
Equity Value (M)19,680.9720,631.1421,618.52
Shares Outstanding (M)6,530.036,530.036,530.03
Fair Value$3.01$3.16$3.31
Upside / Downside-33.76%-30.56%-27.24%

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