Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Zhenyuan Share Co., Ltd. (000705.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.05 - $27.59$19.61
Multi-Stage$5.09 - $5.58$5.33
Blended Fair Value$12.47
Current Price$9.92
Upside25.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.97%24.93%0.070.060.060.070.060.030.000.020.030.00
YoY Growth--19.24%-2.23%-13.42%11.24%103.51%584.71%-81.78%-26.22%4,281.72%-89.95%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.75%0.76%0.77%0.88%0.44%0.06%0.31%0.28%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.445.903.54
Cash Retained (M)22.2722.2722.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.44-5.90-3.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8216.3718.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)335.76335.76335.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate5.70%5.70%5.70%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Fair Value$7.05$19.61$27.59
Upside / Downside-28.89%97.64%178.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.2249.6052.1054.7257.4860.3862.19
Payout Ratio52.84%60.27%67.71%75.14%82.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.9529.9035.2741.1247.4654.3457.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.70%5.70%5.70%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)28.0128.2828.55
Year 2 PV (M)30.9731.5732.18
Year 3 PV (M)33.8434.8235.82
Year 4 PV (M)36.6038.0339.49
Year 5 PV (M)39.2741.1943.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,540.851,616.341,694.76
Equity Value (M)1,709.541,790.231,874.00
Shares Outstanding (M)335.76335.76335.76
Fair Value$5.09$5.33$5.58
Upside / Downside-48.67%-46.25%-43.74%

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