Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Tungsten And Hightech Materals Co.,Ltd (000657.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.87 - $87.90$37.35
Multi-Stage$13.66 - $14.93$14.29
Blended Fair Value$25.82
Current Price$18.63
Upside38.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.07%4.20%0.130.120.110.050.050.050.040.040.040.06
YoY Growth--6.37%10.07%119.68%8.66%-6.91%16.18%16.00%-4.00%-35.32%-30.73%
Dividend Yield--1.28%1.16%1.05%0.57%0.76%1.17%0.78%0.60%0.49%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,579.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)432.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,146.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)315.82197.39118.43
Cash Retained (M)1,146.641,146.641,146.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-315.82-197.39-118.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)830.82949.251,028.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,153.732,153.732,153.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.87$37.35$87.90
Upside / Downside17.40%100.48%371.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,579.121,681.761,791.071,907.492,031.482,163.532,228.43
Payout Ratio27.39%39.91%52.43%64.95%77.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)432.48671.19939.101,239.011,573.941,947.172,061.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)613.76619.58625.40
Year 2 PV (M)785.28800.24815.34
Year 3 PV (M)947.42974.621,002.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,100.561,142.891,186.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,245.051,305.191,367.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,731.2325,925.7627,166.00
Equity Value (M)29,423.3130,768.2732,163.12
Shares Outstanding (M)2,153.732,153.732,153.73
Fair Value$13.66$14.29$14.93
Upside / Downside-26.67%-23.32%-19.84%

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