Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (000623.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.65 - $57.51$42.41
Multi-Stage$78.32 - $86.33$82.25
Blended Fair Value$62.33
Current Price$20.01
Upside211.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.50%27.97%0.940.350.330.230.220.210.310.240.260.18
YoY Growth--164.62%6.04%47.73%1.35%4.76%-31.48%29.79%-8.24%47.70%122.01%
Dividend Yield--5.68%2.40%2.18%1.27%1.40%1.35%1.67%1.16%1.11%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,567.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)296.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,271.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)513.55320.97192.58
Cash Retained (M)2,271.772,271.772,271.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-513.55-320.97-192.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,758.221,950.802,079.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,133.091,133.091,133.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.551.721.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.551.721.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-0.46%0.54%1.54%
Fair Value$31.65$42.41$57.51
Upside / Downside58.19%111.94%187.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,567.772,581.702,595.702,609.772,623.932,638.162,717.30
Payout Ratio11.53%27.22%42.92%58.61%74.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)296.00702.791,113.981,529.611,949.722,374.342,513.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-0.46%0.54%1.54%
Year 1 PV (M)661.13667.78674.42
Year 2 PV (M)985.841,005.751,025.85
Year 3 PV (M)1,273.431,312.201,351.74
Year 4 PV (M)1,526.971,589.261,653.44
Year 5 PV (M)1,749.301,838.951,932.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,548.6886,779.2591,181.51
Equity Value (M)88,745.3693,193.1897,819.20
Shares Outstanding (M)1,133.091,133.091,133.09
Fair Value$78.32$82.25$86.33
Upside / Downside291.41%311.03%331.43%

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