Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guizhou Tyre Co.,Ltd. (000589.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.14 - $61.43$57.56
Multi-Stage$43.75 - $48.02$45.84
Blended Fair Value$51.70
Current Price$4.50
Upside1,048.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.15%6.14%0.260.220.080.130.090.100.090.100.130.15
YoY Growth--19.49%174.63%-38.47%38.56%-2.78%4.44%-8.96%-19.78%-14.22%1.95%
Dividend Yield--5.48%3.78%1.58%2.85%1.62%2.95%2.63%2.93%2.51%3.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)504.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)387.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.9963.1237.87
Cash Retained (M)387.75387.75387.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.99-63.12-37.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)286.76324.63349.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.911,634.911,634.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.14$57.56$61.43
Upside / Downside1,058.59%1,179.22%1,265.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)504.97537.79572.75609.97649.62691.85712.60
Payout Ratio23.21%36.57%49.93%63.29%76.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.22196.67285.96386.02497.89622.66659.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)198.74200.62202.51
Year 2 PV (M)292.01297.57303.19
Year 3 PV (M)398.34409.78421.43
Year 4 PV (M)519.19539.15559.69
Year 5 PV (M)656.14687.83720.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,459.4672,814.3876,297.70
Equity Value (M)71,523.8874,949.3478,505.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.911,634.911,634.91
Fair Value$43.75$45.84$48.02
Upside / Downside872.18%918.74%967.07%

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