Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pacific Shuanglin Bio-pharmacy Co., Ltd. (000403.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.14 - $131.75$123.47
Multi-Stage$19.61 - $21.44$20.51
Blended Fair Value$71.99
Current Price$16.18
Upside344.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.85%38.65%0.310.080.060.010.210.170.030.010.000.01
YoY Growth--296.23%34.48%312.09%-93.26%23.68%521.38%364.90%0.00%-100.00%-20.83%
Dividend Yield--1.89%0.35%0.32%0.09%0.75%1.48%0.31%0.06%0.00%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)559.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)371.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)187.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)111.9569.9741.98
Cash Retained (M)187.81187.81187.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-111.95-69.97-41.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.85117.84145.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)844.94844.94844.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.14$123.47$131.75
Upside / Downside234.61%663.12%714.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)559.77596.15634.90676.17720.12766.93789.94
Payout Ratio66.45%71.16%75.87%80.58%85.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)371.96424.22481.70544.86614.19690.24730.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)394.47398.20401.94
Year 2 PV (M)416.50424.43432.44
Year 3 PV (M)438.07450.64463.46
Year 4 PV (M)459.18476.84495.00
Year 5 PV (M)479.84503.02527.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,378.6815,073.1715,794.25
Equity Value (M)16,566.7317,326.3118,114.17
Shares Outstanding (M)844.94844.94844.94
Fair Value$19.61$20.51$21.44
Upside / Downside21.18%26.74%32.50%

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