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Definitive Analysis

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Lotte Non - Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (000400.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,026.32 - $1,531.70$1,266.63
Multi-Stage$1,903.11 - $2,096.47$1,997.89
Blended Fair Value$1,632.26
Current Price$1,963.00
Upside-16.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.56%0.00%10.0810.0810.088.838.888.888.574.290.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%14.19%-0.61%0.00%3.57%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.32%0.68%0.46%0.48%0.68%0.31%0.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38,800.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,128.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)35,672.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,760.044,850.032,910.02
Cash Retained (M)35,672.2235,672.2235,672.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,760.04-4,850.03-2,910.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)27,912.1830,822.1932,762.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)310.39310.39310.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share89.9399.30105.55
LTM Dividend per Share10.0810.0810.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share89.9399.30105.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.01109.38115.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,026.32$1,266.63$1,531.70
Upside / Downside-47.72%-35.47%-21.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38,800.2238,412.2238,028.1037,647.8137,271.3436,898.6238,005.58
Payout Ratio8.06%24.45%40.84%57.22%73.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,128.009,391.5815,529.5721,543.8627,436.3133,208.7635,155.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8,644.158,732.358,820.56
Year 2 PV (M)13,156.0813,425.9513,698.55
Year 3 PV (M)16,798.6517,318.1617,848.27
Year 4 PV (M)19,690.6620,506.7521,347.94
Year 5 PV (M)21,936.6823,078.9824,268.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)510,471.60537,053.04564,730.45
Equity Value (M)590,697.83620,115.23650,714.15
Shares Outstanding (M)310.39310.39310.39
Fair Value$1,903.11$1,997.89$2,096.47
Upside / Downside-3.05%1.78%6.80%

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