Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Textile (Holdings) Co., Ltd. (000045.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.57 - $5.41$3.64
Multi-Stage$1.99 - $2.16$2.07
Blended Fair Value$2.86
Current Price$12.78
Upside-77.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.10%62.17%0.100.110.110.080.010.090.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth---11.67%1.29%47.74%990.85%-91.92%119.45%1,789.80%23.19%7.43%96.84%
Dividend Yield--0.86%1.13%1.04%0.97%0.08%1.25%0.49%0.02%0.01%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.988.745.24
Cash Retained (M)28.3428.3428.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.98-8.74-5.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.3519.6023.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)506.47506.47506.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate10.04%10.04%10.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.57$3.64$5.41
Upside / Downside-79.90%-71.53%-57.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.9174.4679.3084.4589.9495.7998.66
Payout Ratio59.47%65.58%71.68%77.79%83.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.5848.8356.8465.6975.4686.2191.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.04%10.04%10.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.9644.3744.79
Year 2 PV (M)46.0746.9547.83
Year 3 PV (M)47.9349.3150.71
Year 4 PV (M)49.5751.4753.43
Year 5 PV (M)50.9853.4456.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)767.08804.13842.60
Equity Value (M)1,005.591,049.671,095.36
Shares Outstanding (M)506.47506.47506.47
Fair Value$1.99$2.07$2.16
Upside / Downside-84.46%-83.78%-83.08%

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