Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Nanshan Power Co., Ltd. (000037.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.18 - $0.23$0.21
Multi-Stage$0.53 - $0.59$0.56
Blended Fair Value$0.39
Current Price$8.50
Upside-95.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.73%-27.96%0.010.020.020.040.070.080.080.090.320.35
YoY Growth---26.50%-25.67%-42.06%-34.92%-16.85%-1.30%-11.59%-71.30%-9.78%-2.71%
Dividend Yield--0.17%0.21%0.32%0.65%0.61%0.71%0.56%1.28%2.61%3.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.525.953.57
Cash Retained (M)20.6120.6120.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.52-5.95-3.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.0914.6617.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)602.98602.98602.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate-20.38%-19.38%-18.38%
Fair Value$0.18$0.21$0.23
Upside / Downside-97.86%-97.54%-97.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.5938.3730.9424.9420.1116.2116.70
Payout Ratio56.70%63.36%70.02%76.68%83.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.9924.3121.6619.1316.7614.5915.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate-20.38%-19.38%-18.38%
Year 1 PV (M)22.4022.6822.96
Year 2 PV (M)18.3818.8519.32
Year 3 PV (M)14.9515.5216.11
Year 4 PV (M)12.0712.6913.33
Year 5 PV (M)9.6810.3010.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)243.64259.32275.81
Equity Value (M)321.12339.37358.49
Shares Outstanding (M)602.98602.98602.98
Fair Value$0.53$0.56$0.59
Upside / Downside-93.73%-93.38%-93.01%

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