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abrdn National Municipal Income Fund (VFL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.22 - $27.68$23.35
Multi-Stage$31.43 - $34.50$32.93
Blended Fair Value$28.14
Current Price$11.17
Upside151.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.490.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.674.172.50
Cash Retained (M)21.9621.9621.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.67-4.17-2.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.2917.7919.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.2812.2812.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.241.451.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.241.451.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.172.382.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$19.22$23.35$27.68
Upside / Downside72.11%109.03%147.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.3633.0232.6932.3732.0431.7232.68
Payout Ratio34.18%45.34%56.51%67.67%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.4014.9718.4721.9025.2628.5530.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.5913.7313.87
Year 2 PV (M)15.2215.5315.84
Year 3 PV (M)16.3716.8817.39
Year 4 PV (M)17.1317.8418.58
Year 5 PV (M)17.5718.4919.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)305.98321.91338.50
Equity Value (M)385.86404.37423.62
Shares Outstanding (M)12.2812.2812.28
Fair Value$31.43$32.93$34.50
Upside / Downside181.35%194.85%208.88%

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