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Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes Due 2029 (TRINI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.33 - $23.51$19.84
Multi-Stage$28.54 - $31.23$29.86
Blended Fair Value$24.85
Current Price$25.15
Upside-1.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.200.930.380.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%28.86%145.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.79%3.72%1.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)151.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.3919.0011.40
Cash Retained (M)25.1125.1125.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.39-19.00-11.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.286.1113.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.8465.8465.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.090.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.931.931.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.080.090.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.33$19.84$23.51
Upside / Downside-35.06%-21.13%-6.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)151.97150.45148.94147.46145.98144.52148.86
Payout Ratio83.48%84.78%86.09%87.39%88.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.86127.55128.22128.86129.48130.07137.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)115.76116.94118.12
Year 2 PV (M)105.60107.76109.95
Year 3 PV (M)96.3199.29102.33
Year 4 PV (M)87.8291.4695.21
Year 5 PV (M)80.0684.2388.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,393.911,466.501,542.07
Equity Value (M)1,879.451,966.172,056.24
Shares Outstanding (M)65.8465.8465.84
Fair Value$28.54$29.86$31.23
Upside / Downside13.50%18.74%24.18%

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