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AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173.37 - $340.78$239.39
Multi-Stage$277.37 - $304.20$290.53
Blended Fair Value$264.96
Current Price$235.00
Upside12.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.01%4.35%8.427.007.006.503.006.005.765.755.795.72
YoY Growth--20.24%0.00%7.67%116.69%-49.98%4.20%0.11%-0.65%1.15%4.03%
Dividend Yield--4.18%3.16%3.42%3.71%1.21%4.38%3.58%3.35%3.27%3.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,866.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,612.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,254.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)973.20608.25364.95
Cash Retained (M)1,254.001,254.001,254.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-973.20-608.25-364.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)280.80645.75889.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)455.35455.35455.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.621.421.95
LTM Dividend per Share7.937.937.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.621.421.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.559.359.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Fair Value$173.37$239.39$340.78
Upside / Downside-26.23%1.87%45.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,866.004,980.595,097.875,217.925,340.795,466.565,630.56
Payout Ratio74.23%77.38%80.54%83.69%86.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,612.003,854.154,105.704,366.974,638.264,919.905,208.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Year 1 PV (M)3,588.533,623.933,659.34
Year 2 PV (M)3,559.283,629.863,701.14
Year 3 PV (M)3,524.863,630.233,737.67
Year 4 PV (M)3,485.823,625.433,769.20
Year 5 PV (M)3,442.653,615.873,795.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,699.52114,168.70119,855.85
Equity Value (M)126,300.65132,294.03138,519.19
Shares Outstanding (M)455.35455.35455.35
Fair Value$277.37$290.53$304.20
Upside / Downside18.03%23.63%29.45%

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