Definitive Analysis | Institutional-Grade Financial Research
Definitive Analysis
Get Full Access
See Pricing Start Free Trial

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.65 - $112.51$87.45
Multi-Stage$80.10 - $87.65$83.80
Blended Fair Value$85.63
Current Price$92.37
Upside-7.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.21%3.72%2.072.011.931.841.791.681.621.571.521.48
YoY Growth--2.52%4.37%4.73%3.10%6.37%4.00%2.90%3.02%3.14%3.14%
Dividend Yield--2.24%3.32%3.85%2.91%2.80%4.09%3.47%3.07%2.78%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)518.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)330.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.7064.8138.89
Cash Retained (M)330.07330.07330.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.70-64.81-38.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.37265.25291.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.2491.2491.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.482.913.19
LTM Dividend per Share2.072.072.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.482.913.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.554.975.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Fair Value$67.65$87.45$112.51
Upside / Downside-26.76%-5.33%21.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)518.50535.15552.33570.07588.37607.26625.48
Payout Ratio36.34%47.07%57.81%68.54%79.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.44251.92319.28390.71466.39546.54578.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate2.21%3.21%4.21%
Year 1 PV (M)228.71230.95233.19
Year 2 PV (M)263.16268.34273.56
Year 3 PV (M)292.37301.04309.87
Year 4 PV (M)316.85329.44342.39
Year 5 PV (M)337.10353.91371.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,869.306,162.096,466.45
Equity Value (M)7,307.497,645.767,996.85
Shares Outstanding (M)91.2491.2491.24
Fair Value$80.10$83.80$87.65
Upside / Downside-13.29%-9.27%-5.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

« Prev Page 2 of 30 Next »
Ticker Company Dividend Yield % Dividend Per Share Payout Ratio %
GHYPGIM Global High Yield Fund, Inc15.29%$1.8962.38%
BGRBlackRock Energy and Resources Trust15.26%$2.1298.26%
BOEBlackRock Enhanced Global Dividend Trust15.09%$1.7867.28%
FENFirst Trust Energy Income and Growth Fund15.00%$2.4049.79%
SOJESouthern Company (The) Series 214.95%$2.6967.01%
PSFCohen & Steers Select Preferred and Income Fund, Inc.14.84%$3.0256.28%
EVGEaton Vance Short Duration Diversified Income Fund14.82%$1.6271.62%
LDPCohen & Steers Limited Duration Preferred and Income Fund, Inc.14.73%$3.1554.69%
DNPDNP Select Income Fund Inc.14.64%$1.4553.01%
JRSNuveen Real Estate Income Fund14.56%$1.1189.79%
DPGDuff & Phelps Utility and Infrastructure Fund Inc.14.47%$1.8654.60%
BSTBlackRock Science and Technology Trust14.42%$5.8646.91%
MPAIXMorgan Stanley Insti Fd Advantage Portfolio Cl I14.33%$4.0043.20%
JCAPJefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock14.11%$3.1245.65%
PHTPioneer High Income Fund, Inc.13.99%$1.1961.96%
RZC7.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Subordinated Debentures due 205213.93%$3.5527.34%
RNPCohen & Steers REIT and Preferred Income Fund, Inc.13.88%$2.7761.92%
DOMHDominari Holdings Inc.13.87%$0.7010.86%
STT-PDState Street Corporation13.86%$3.4633.48%
FCTFirst Trust Senior Floating Rate Income Fund II13.80%$1.3867.42%
VIRTVirtu Financial, Inc.13.57%$4.4389.50%
DHFBNY Mellon High Yield Strategies Fund13.55%$0.3461.16%
JHIJohn Hancock Investors Trust13.15%$1.7974.97%
AIOVirtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund12.91%$2.8238.01%
UTFCohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund, Inc12.84%$3.1453.56%
DFPFlaherty & Crumrine Dynamic Preferred and Income Fund Inc.12.81%$2.6848.05%
WEAWestern Asset Premier Bond Fund12.81%$1.4380.16%
TPZTortoise Essential Energy Fund12.76%$2.6467.76%
FTFranklin Universal Trust12.72%$1.0256.42%
CSQCalamos Strategic Total Return Fund12.70%$2.4351.10%
HYBThe New America High Income Fund Inc.12.68%$1.0463.42%
NBBNuveen Taxable Municipal Income Fund12.66%$2.0085.04%
RWAYRunway Growth Finance Corp.12.66%$1.1475.51%
ELVTElevate Credit, Inc.12.61%$0.2475.91%
NDPTortoise Energy Independence Fund, Inc.12.60%$5.0986.32%
BCEICivitas Resources, Inc.12.58%$7.0698.41%
GENVRGen Digital Inc. Contingent Value Rights12.54%$0.5054.91%
SOJCThe Southern Company JR 2017B NT 7712.31%$2.6967.01%
BTOJohn Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund12.25%$4.3229.72%
FEIFirst Trust MLP and Energy Income Fund12.21%$1.2058.56%
PCNPIMCO Corporate & Income Strategy Fund12.19%$1.5568.95%
HTDJohn Hancock Tax-Advantaged Dividend Income Fund12.17%$2.9051.08%
NIEVirtus Equity & Convertible Income Fund12.17%$3.0445.26%
PFDFlaherty & Crumrine Preferred Income Fund Inc.11.99%$1.4348.51%
TYGTortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation11.98%$4.9643.95%
FPLFirst Trust New Opportunities MLP & Energy Fund11.82%$0.9254.20%
BTZBlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust11.69%$1.2692.75%
BHBFXMadison Dividend Income Fd Cl Y11.61%$2.8540.22%
CGABLThe Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 206111.57%$2.0197.92%
DBLDoubleLine Opportunistic Credit Fund11.57%$1.7652.03%