Definitive Analysis
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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$201.91 - $303.13$249.83
Multi-Stage$285.31 - $313.41$299.09
Blended Fair Value$274.46
Current Price$388.26
Upside-29.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.841.671.501.370.350.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--10.18%11.71%9.52%295.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.39%0.58%0.68%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)471.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)431.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.2458.9035.34
Cash Retained (M)431.80431.80431.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.24-58.90-35.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.56372.90396.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.9719.9719.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.9018.6719.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.971.971.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.9018.6719.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8820.6521.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-0.23%0.77%1.77%
Fair Value$201.91$249.83$303.13
Upside / Downside-48.00%-35.65%-21.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)471.20474.83478.49482.17485.89489.63504.32
Payout Ratio8.36%24.69%41.02%57.34%73.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.40117.23196.26276.50357.96440.67466.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-0.23%0.77%1.77%
Year 1 PV (M)106.39107.46108.52
Year 2 PV (M)161.64164.89168.18
Year 3 PV (M)206.66212.93219.34
Year 4 PV (M)242.80252.68262.86
Year 5 PV (M)271.25285.12299.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,708.904,949.675,200.18
Equity Value (M)5,697.645,972.756,258.63
Shares Outstanding (M)19.9719.9719.97
Fair Value$285.31$299.09$313.41
Upside / Downside-26.51%-22.97%-19.28%

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