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LH Shopping Centers Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (LHSC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.64 - $54.46$38.20
Multi-Stage$42.35 - $46.46$44.37
Blended Fair Value$41.28
Current Price$12.20
Upside238.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.54%0.00%0.720.530.240.090.290.600.560.580.670.25
YoY Growth--35.85%121.05%153.33%-67.03%-52.55%6.56%-2.07%-13.95%165.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.92%5.32%2.09%0.93%2.50%4.66%3.32%3.90%4.75%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,318.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)779.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)539.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)263.76164.8598.91
Cash Retained (M)539.47539.47539.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-263.76-164.85-98.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)275.71374.62440.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)778.06778.06778.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Fair Value$27.64$38.20$54.46
Upside / Downside126.54%213.09%346.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,318.811,351.591,385.181,419.621,454.901,491.071,535.80
Payout Ratio59.09%65.28%71.46%77.64%83.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)779.34882.25989.801,102.161,219.481,341.961,420.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)820.60828.68836.77
Year 2 PV (M)856.29873.25890.37
Year 3 PV (M)886.85913.32940.32
Year 4 PV (M)912.67949.18986.77
Year 5 PV (M)934.15981.091,029.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,540.3029,974.4131,465.60
Equity Value (M)32,950.8534,519.9236,149.72
Shares Outstanding (M)778.06778.06778.06
Fair Value$42.35$44.37$46.46
Upside / Downside247.13%263.66%280.83%

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