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Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KPN.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.95 - $6.28$5.01
Multi-Stage$8.18 - $8.99$8.58
Blended Fair Value$6.79
Current Price$4.14
Upside64.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.76%21.26%0.150.140.130.130.120.120.120.120.100.11
YoY Growth--10.05%2.80%3.07%4.73%3.32%-3.21%3.93%20.62%-14.75%426.60%
Dividend Yield--4.23%4.34%4.56%4.68%4.90%4.49%4.77%4.03%3.46%3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,674.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,160.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)334.80209.25125.55
Cash Retained (M)514.00514.00514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-334.80-209.25-125.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.20304.75388.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,335.084,335.084,335.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$3.95$5.01$6.28
Upside / Downside-4.61%21.03%51.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,674.001,672.461,670.911,669.371,667.841,666.301,716.29
Payout Ratio69.30%73.44%77.58%81.72%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,160.001,228.191,296.251,364.181,431.991,499.671,587.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)1,140.141,151.661,163.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,117.051,139.751,162.68
Year 3 PV (M)1,091.311,124.751,158.86
Year 4 PV (M)1,063.431,107.091,152.08
Year 5 PV (M)1,033.851,087.181,142.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,028.6931,577.7133,190.01
Equity Value (M)35,474.4637,188.1438,969.51
Shares Outstanding (M)4,335.084,335.084,335.08
Fair Value$8.18$8.58$8.99
Upside / Downside97.66%107.21%117.13%

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