Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.63 - $6.35$5.50
Multi-Stage$5.46 - $5.92$5.68
Blended Fair Value$5.59
Current Price$6.80
Upside-17.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS52.75%3.24%0.360.240.080.070.070.040.070.070.030.21
YoY Growth--52.86%181.13%18.56%1.51%60.79%-37.40%0.43%118.42%-84.79%-20.81%
Dividend Yield--5.34%4.25%2.15%1.30%1.83%2.16%3.04%1.97%0.95%11.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.413.382.03
Cash Retained (M)7.147.147.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.41-3.38-2.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.743.765.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.0933.0933.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.110.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.110.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.76
WACC / Discount Rate15.77%15.77%15.77%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Fair Value$4.63$5.50$6.35
Upside / Downside-31.88%-19.11%-6.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27.0327.6928.3729.0729.7830.5131.43
Payout Ratio73.58%76.86%80.15%83.43%86.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.8921.2922.7424.2525.8327.4629.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.77%15.77%15.77%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Year 1 PV (M)18.2118.3918.57
Year 2 PV (M)16.6416.9717.30
Year 3 PV (M)15.1815.6316.09
Year 4 PV (M)13.8314.3814.95
Year 5 PV (M)12.5713.2113.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)104.27109.51114.96
Equity Value (M)180.69188.08195.73
Shares Outstanding (M)33.0933.0933.09
Fair Value$5.46$5.68$5.92
Upside / Downside-19.69%-16.40%-13.00%

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