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Global Industrial Company (GIC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.56 - $18.08$15.25
Multi-Stage$21.23 - $23.26$22.23
Blended Fair Value$18.74
Current Price$36.67
Upside-48.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.87%0.00%1.000.800.721.633.506.812.840.340.100.00
YoY Growth--25.49%10.87%-55.84%-53.46%-48.66%139.34%740.77%251.35%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.46%1.81%2.68%5.05%8.50%38.40%12.31%1.19%0.87%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.648.535.12
Cash Retained (M)28.4028.4028.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.64-8.53-5.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.7619.8823.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.4338.4338.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.520.61
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.520.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.56$15.25$18.08
Upside / Downside-65.75%-58.40%-50.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.2067.5266.8466.1765.5164.8666.80
Payout Ratio58.36%64.69%71.01%77.34%83.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.8043.6747.4751.1854.8258.3761.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.6340.0440.44
Year 2 PV (M)39.0939.8940.70
Year 3 PV (M)38.2539.4340.64
Year 4 PV (M)37.1838.7240.31
Year 5 PV (M)35.9337.8039.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)625.55658.13692.04
Equity Value (M)815.64854.01893.89
Shares Outstanding (M)38.4338.4338.43
Fair Value$21.23$22.23$23.26
Upside / Downside-42.11%-39.39%-36.56%

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