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Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (GALP.LS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.09 - $51.63$34.33
Multi-Stage$31.08 - $34.07$32.55
Blended Fair Value$33.44
Current Price$16.10
Upside107.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.57%4.31%0.560.570.560.670.530.750.690.660.520.43
YoY Growth---0.71%0.48%-15.66%25.13%-28.67%8.98%4.28%26.87%21.62%15.77%
Dividend Yield--3.47%3.60%5.39%5.80%5.39%7.20%4.75%4.30%3.65%3.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)975.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)480.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)495.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)195.00121.8873.13
Cash Retained (M)495.00495.00495.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-195.00-121.88-73.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)300.00373.13421.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)745.02745.02745.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Fair Value$24.09$34.33$51.63
Upside / Downside49.64%113.24%220.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)975.001,007.241,040.541,074.941,110.481,147.201,181.62
Payout Ratio49.23%57.38%65.54%73.69%81.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)480.00578.00681.95792.15908.891,032.481,093.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)536.20541.44546.68
Year 2 PV (M)586.89598.41610.06
Year 3 PV (M)632.42651.15670.24
Year 4 PV (M)673.14699.85727.34
Year 5 PV (M)709.38744.73781.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,014.3821,011.8522,048.69
Equity Value (M)23,152.4024,247.4325,384.50
Shares Outstanding (M)745.02745.02745.02
Fair Value$31.08$32.55$34.07
Upside / Downside93.02%102.15%111.63%

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