Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Dunelm Group plc (DNLM.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.01 - $294.44$108.57
Multi-Stage$57.83 - $63.40$60.56
Blended Fair Value$84.57
Current Price$11.85
Upside613.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.44%-6.96%0.440.780.801.390.120.520.270.260.250.53
YoY Growth---43.53%-3.49%-42.11%1,060.91%-77.08%94.14%2.25%3.49%-52.40%-40.82%
Dividend Yield--3.69%7.32%7.17%16.90%0.84%4.38%2.92%5.20%4.22%6.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)307.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)246.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.5038.4423.06
Cash Retained (M)60.9060.9060.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.50-38.44-23.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.6022.4637.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)203.30203.30203.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.110.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.110.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.321.40
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate3.23%4.23%5.23%
Fair Value$55.01$108.57$294.44
Upside / Downside364.25%816.24%2,384.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)307.50320.50334.05348.17362.89378.24389.58
Payout Ratio80.20%82.16%84.12%86.08%88.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)246.60263.31280.99299.70319.49340.41360.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.50%5.50%5.50%
Growth Rate3.23%4.23%5.23%
Year 1 PV (M)247.19249.59251.98
Year 2 PV (M)247.65252.47257.34
Year 3 PV (M)247.97255.24262.66
Year 4 PV (M)248.16257.91267.95
Year 5 PV (M)248.22260.48273.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,517.9211,037.3411,577.08
Equity Value (M)11,757.1112,313.0312,890.23
Shares Outstanding (M)203.30203.30203.30
Fair Value$57.83$60.56$63.40
Upside / Downside388.02%411.10%435.05%

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