Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chemring Group PLC (BC88.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.02 - $6.29$4.26
Multi-Stage$2.78 - $3.03$2.90
Blended Fair Value$3.58
Current Price$0.97
Upside269.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.82%5.14%0.070.060.050.040.040.030.030.020.000.03
YoY Growth--14.45%20.14%21.01%14.42%9.47%9.20%35.94%0.00%-100.00%-34.17%
Dividend Yield--7.32%6.40%4.74%3.92%3.42%3.10%2.84%2.09%0.00%2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.325.833.50
Cash Retained (M)6.106.106.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.32-5.83-3.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.220.282.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)278.84278.84278.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$3.02$4.26$6.29
Upside / Downside211.84%339.60%548.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.6049.1251.7854.5957.5560.6662.48
Payout Ratio86.91%87.53%88.15%88.76%89.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.5043.0045.6548.4651.4454.6057.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)39.0639.4439.81
Year 2 PV (M)37.6738.4039.13
Year 3 PV (M)36.3337.3838.46
Year 4 PV (M)35.0436.4037.80
Year 5 PV (M)33.7835.4337.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)593.01621.95652.02
Equity Value (M)774.89809.00844.36
Shares Outstanding (M)278.84278.84278.84
Fair Value$2.78$2.90$3.03
Upside / Downside186.49%199.10%212.18%

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