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Banco BPM S.p.A. (BAMI.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.14 - $246.54$225.12
Multi-Stage$32.54 - $35.53$34.01
Blended Fair Value$129.56
Current Price$9.91
Upside1,207.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS642.95%64.50%0.960.230.190.060.000.000.000.000.040.00
YoY Growth--314.47%21.22%218.45%0.00%-100.00%-66.67%-55.04%-99.29%23,403.13%-97.44%
Dividend Yield--10.31%3.73%5.31%2.24%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%1.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,863.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,507.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)355.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)372.67232.92139.75
Cash Retained (M)355.43355.43355.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-372.67-232.92-139.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.24122.51215.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.101,503.101,503.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.15
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.14$225.12$246.54
Upside / Downside597.73%2,171.62%2,387.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,863.331,984.442,113.432,250.812,397.112,552.922,629.51
Payout Ratio80.93%82.74%84.56%86.37%88.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,507.901,641.931,787.021,944.022,113.892,297.632,432.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,519.921,534.331,548.73
Year 2 PV (M)1,531.301,560.471,589.91
Year 3 PV (M)1,542.051,586.321,631.42
Year 4 PV (M)1,552.191,611.881,673.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,561.741,637.171,715.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,196.3643,186.1645,252.12
Equity Value (M)48,903.5651,116.3353,410.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.101,503.101,503.10
Fair Value$32.54$34.01$35.53
Upside / Downside228.31%243.16%258.57%

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