Definitive Analysis
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Aurskog Sparebank (AURG.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,921.77 - $10,541.52$9,299.51
Multi-Stage$1,330.61 - $1,456.15$1,392.23
Blended Fair Value$5,345.87
Current Price$241.95
Upside2,109.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.50%0.00%15.0010.008.006.957.655.6711.254.014.010.00
YoY Growth--50.00%25.06%15.00%-9.09%35.00%-49.63%180.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.44%4.65%3.77%3.49%4.40%3.70%7.68%3.07%3.11%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)175.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.0130.6318.38
Cash Retained (M)175.70175.70175.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.01-30.63-18.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.69145.07157.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.624.624.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share27.4131.3834.03
LTM Dividend per Share15.0015.0015.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share27.4131.3834.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend42.4046.3849.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,921.77$9,299.51$10,541.52
Upside / Downside1,107.59%3,743.56%4,256.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.04260.96277.92295.99315.23335.72345.79
Payout Ratio28.30%40.64%52.98%65.32%77.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.34106.05147.24193.34244.81302.15319.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)98.1599.08100.01
Year 2 PV (M)126.13128.53130.96
Year 3 PV (M)153.28157.68162.17
Year 4 PV (M)179.64186.54193.65
Year 5 PV (M)205.20215.11225.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,388.765,649.045,919.28
Equity Value (M)6,151.166,435.996,731.47
Shares Outstanding (M)4.624.624.62
Fair Value$1,330.61$1,392.23$1,456.15
Upside / Downside449.95%475.42%501.84%

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