Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Atrium Ljungberg AB (publ) (ATRLJ-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.93 - $31.02$24.32
Multi-Stage$40.73 - $44.82$42.73
Blended Fair Value$33.53
Current Price$31.67
Upside5.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.91%1.06%0.701.061.041.021.031.000.950.830.750.70
YoY Growth---33.98%1.67%2.66%-1.39%2.85%5.34%13.88%11.21%7.50%10.83%
Dividend Yield--2.11%2.58%3.08%2.64%3.29%3.23%2.95%3.39%2.75%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,075.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)448.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)627.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)215.00134.3880.63
Cash Retained (M)627.00627.00627.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-215.00-134.38-80.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)412.00492.63546.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)630.53630.53630.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.780.87
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.780.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-0.94%0.06%1.06%
Fair Value$18.93$24.32$31.02
Upside / Downside-40.23%-23.21%-2.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,075.001,075.611,076.221,076.831,077.441,078.051,110.39
Payout Ratio41.67%51.34%61.00%70.67%80.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)448.00552.21656.54760.99865.56970.241,027.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-0.94%0.06%1.06%
Year 1 PV (M)514.81520.00525.20
Year 2 PV (M)570.61582.18593.88
Year 3 PV (M)616.58635.44654.69
Year 4 PV (M)653.80680.60708.22
Year 5 PV (M)683.22718.41755.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,642.5523,808.7725,022.56
Equity Value (M)25,681.5626,945.4228,259.58
Shares Outstanding (M)630.53630.53630.53
Fair Value$40.73$42.73$44.82
Upside / Downside28.61%34.94%41.52%

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