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Afya Limited (AFYA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.74 - $110.31$89.70
Multi-Stage$154.97 - $170.78$162.72
Blended Fair Value$126.21
Current Price$82.95
Upside52.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.410.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)729.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)600.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.8991.1854.71
Cash Retained (M)600.42600.42600.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.89-91.18-54.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.53509.24545.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.7592.7592.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.905.495.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.905.495.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.296.887.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$71.74$89.70$110.31
Upside / Downside-13.52%8.14%32.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)729.43722.13714.91707.76700.68693.68714.49
Payout Ratio17.69%32.15%46.61%61.07%75.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.01232.16333.23432.26529.28624.31660.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.59%6.59%6.59%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)215.59217.79219.99
Year 2 PV (M)287.38293.28299.23
Year 3 PV (M)346.19356.90367.82
Year 4 PV (M)393.65409.96426.78
Year 5 PV (M)431.20453.65477.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,699.2913,360.5714,049.12
Equity Value (M)14,373.3015,092.1515,839.97
Shares Outstanding (M)92.7592.7592.75
Fair Value$154.97$162.72$170.78
Upside / Downside86.82%96.16%105.88%

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