Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Horizon Construction Development (9930.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.08 - $9.89$7.79
Multi-Stage$17.64 - $19.48$18.54
Blended Fair Value$13.16
Current Price$1.09
Upside1,107.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-20.25%0.00%0.040.000.000.000.000.130.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,793.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,791.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)358.74224.21134.53
Cash Retained (M)1,791.091,791.091,791.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-358.74-224.21-134.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,432.351,566.881,656.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,173.763,173.763,173.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.490.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.490.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate5.29%5.29%5.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.08$7.79$9.89
Upside / Downside457.95%614.56%807.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,793.681,775.741,757.981,740.401,723.001,705.771,756.94
Payout Ratio0.14%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.59321.68634.40940.821,241.061,535.191,625.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.29%5.29%5.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)302.45305.53308.62
Year 2 PV (M)560.80572.30583.92
Year 3 PV (M)781.94806.12830.80
Year 4 PV (M)969.791,009.991,051.42
Year 5 PV (M)1,127.901,186.641,247.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,240.5654,960.8457,793.29
Equity Value (M)55,983.4358,841.4261,815.83
Shares Outstanding (M)3,173.763,173.763,173.76
Fair Value$17.64$18.54$19.48
Upside / Downside1,518.30%1,600.91%1,686.90%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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