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Japan Logistics Fund, Inc. (8967.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70,979.53 - $109,083.62$88,731.62
Multi-Stage$162,605.47 - $178,590.92$170,442.75
Blended Fair Value$129,587.18
Current Price$93,800.00
Upside38.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%3,520.383,494.143,422.313,145.684,759.210.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.75%2.10%8.79%-33.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.92%4.09%3.42%2.93%4.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,684.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,738.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,945.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,336.902,710.561,626.34
Cash Retained (M)1,945.661,945.661,945.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,336.90-2,710.56-1,626.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,391.24-764.90319.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
LTM Dividend per Share7,095.717,095.717,095.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,236.106,820.747,210.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$70,979.53$88,731.62$109,083.62
Upside / Downside-24.33%-5.40%16.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,684.4921,467.6521,252.9721,040.4420,830.0420,621.7421,240.39
Payout Ratio91.03%90.82%90.62%90.41%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,738.8419,497.3319,258.6919,022.8718,789.8418,559.5619,647.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18,103.7218,288.4618,473.19
Year 2 PV (M)16,603.9816,944.5617,288.61
Year 3 PV (M)15,228.3915,699.3416,179.90
Year 4 PV (M)13,966.7014,545.5515,142.22
Year 5 PV (M)12,809.4713,476.4914,171.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)375,623.68395,183.28415,549.33
Equity Value (M)452,335.95474,137.68496,804.25
Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
Fair Value$162,605.47$170,442.75$178,590.92
Upside / Downside73.35%81.71%90.40%

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