Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Fortune Trend technology Co., Ltd. (688318.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.82 - $105.56$62.96
Multi-Stage$29.33 - $32.03$30.65
Blended Fair Value$46.81
Current Price$161.48
Upside-71.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.56%28.97%0.690.250.500.360.220.270.270.000.130.05
YoY Growth--170.36%-49.54%40.00%66.67%-20.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%150.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.32%0.69%0.77%0.40%0.37%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)112.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)232.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.8343.0225.81
Cash Retained (M)232.09232.09232.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.83-43.02-25.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.26189.07206.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)185.22185.22185.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.021.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.021.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.491.631.72
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.82$62.96$105.56
Upside / Downside-74.10%-61.01%-34.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.14366.51390.33415.70442.73471.50485.65
Payout Ratio32.56%44.05%55.54%67.02%78.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)112.05161.44216.77278.62347.59424.35449.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)146.38147.77149.16
Year 2 PV (M)178.22181.62185.05
Year 3 PV (M)207.71213.67219.75
Year 4 PV (M)234.96243.99253.29
Year 5 PV (M)260.09272.66285.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,405.254,618.034,838.94
Equity Value (M)5,432.625,677.735,931.88
Shares Outstanding (M)185.22185.22185.22
Fair Value$29.33$30.65$32.03
Upside / Downside-81.84%-81.02%-80.17%

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