Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kontour (Xi'an) Medical Technology Co., Ltd. (688314.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.14 - $217.85$89.28
Multi-Stage$23.81 - $26.03$24.90
Blended Fair Value$57.09
Current Price$36.17
Upside57.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS166.65%0.00%0.530.390.460.380.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--34.16%-13.74%20.38%9,170.51%4.38%1,363.28%7.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.74%1.27%1.06%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6811.056.63
Cash Retained (M)57.7157.7157.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.68-11.05-6.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.0346.6651.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.7080.7080.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.14$89.28$217.85
Upside / Downside19.26%146.84%502.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.4094.15100.27106.78113.72121.12124.75
Payout Ratio34.72%45.77%56.83%67.89%78.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.6943.0956.9872.4989.78109.01115.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.6640.0340.41
Year 2 PV (M)48.2649.1850.10
Year 3 PV (M)56.5058.1259.77
Year 4 PV (M)64.3966.8769.42
Year 5 PV (M)71.9575.4279.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,640.321,719.551,801.81
Equity Value (M)1,921.082,009.172,100.54
Shares Outstanding (M)80.7080.7080.70
Fair Value$23.81$24.90$26.03
Upside / Downside-34.19%-31.17%-28.04%

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