Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chengdu KSW Technologies Co.,Ltd. (688283.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.43 - $15.75$10.54
Multi-Stage$5.29 - $5.79$5.53
Blended Fair Value$8.04
Current Price$33.59
Upside-76.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.09%0.00%0.150.070.040.000.030.020.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth--118.29%51.65%987.40%-87.46%80.35%-6.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.24%0.11%0.02%0.13%0.07%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.746.093.65
Cash Retained (M)48.7048.7048.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.74-6.09-3.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.9642.6145.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123.01123.01123.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.43$10.54$15.75
Upside / Downside-77.89%-68.62%-53.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.7051.8755.2458.8362.6566.7368.73
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.009.3419.8931.7745.1160.0563.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.418.498.57
Year 2 PV (M)16.1316.4416.75
Year 3 PV (M)23.2023.8724.55
Year 4 PV (M)29.6730.8131.99
Year 5 PV (M)35.5737.2939.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)537.96563.94590.92
Equity Value (M)650.94680.83711.84
Shares Outstanding (M)123.01123.01123.01
Fair Value$5.29$5.53$5.79
Upside / Downside-84.25%-83.52%-82.77%

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