Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Southern Power Grid Technology Co.,Ltd (688248.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.77 - $130.51$122.30
Multi-Stage$76.13 - $83.55$79.77
Blended Fair Value$101.04
Current Price$60.60
Upside66.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS179.42%0.00%0.310.120.080.100.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--148.00%47.06%-18.04%0.00%-100.00%7.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.99%0.43%0.18%0.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)372.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.4246.5127.91
Cash Retained (M)295.86295.86295.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.42-46.51-27.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.44249.34267.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)567.02567.02567.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate2.05%2.05%2.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110.77$122.30$130.51
Upside / Downside82.79%101.82%115.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)372.09396.28422.03449.47478.68509.80525.09
Payout Ratio20.49%34.39%48.29%62.20%76.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.23136.28203.81279.55364.27458.82485.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.05%2.05%2.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)132.29133.55134.80
Year 2 PV (M)192.06195.71199.41
Year 3 PV (M)255.71263.05270.53
Year 4 PV (M)323.46335.90348.69
Year 5 PV (M)395.49414.59434.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,867.0443,889.2445,988.82
Equity Value (M)43,166.0545,232.0447,376.68
Shares Outstanding (M)567.02567.02567.02
Fair Value$76.13$79.77$83.55
Upside / Downside25.62%31.64%37.88%

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