Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Fulai New Material Co.,Ltd. (605488.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.04 - $13.97$10.58
Multi-Stage$15.89 - $17.47$16.67
Blended Fair Value$13.63
Current Price$36.15
Upside-62.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS1.93%0.00%0.300.250.310.290.290.280.070.010.000.00
YoY Growth--21.19%-19.82%9.45%-2.10%5.66%294.63%419.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%2.57%3.19%2.34%2.02%1.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.7416.7110.03
Cash Retained (M)67.6167.6167.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.74-16.71-10.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.8750.8957.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.28213.28213.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Fair Value$8.04$10.58$13.97
Upside / Downside-77.75%-70.72%-61.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.70134.93136.18137.44138.72140.00144.20
Payout Ratio49.43%57.55%65.66%73.77%81.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.0977.6589.42101.40113.59126.00133.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)72.4273.1573.87
Year 2 PV (M)77.7879.3580.93
Year 3 PV (M)82.2684.7687.30
Year 4 PV (M)85.9589.4493.04
Year 5 PV (M)88.9293.4698.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,982.383,134.633,293.03
Equity Value (M)3,389.733,554.793,726.36
Shares Outstanding (M)213.28213.28213.28
Fair Value$15.89$16.67$17.47
Upside / Downside-56.03%-53.89%-51.67%

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