Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Silvery Dragon Prestressed Materials Co., Ltd. (Tianjin) (603969.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.72 - $17.26$11.17
Multi-Stage$9.50 - $10.43$9.96
Blended Fair Value$10.56
Current Price$10.77
Upside-1.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.93%7.17%0.090.080.030.090.090.140.090.110.070.04
YoY Growth--20.82%195.21%-72.56%5.42%-35.87%53.27%-16.40%55.26%62.79%-6.76%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.35%0.54%1.74%1.97%3.50%1.39%1.68%0.93%0.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)341.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)314.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.2142.6325.58
Cash Retained (M)314.51314.51314.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.21-42.63-25.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)246.30271.88288.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)855.34855.34855.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$7.72$11.17$17.26
Upside / Downside-28.31%3.69%60.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)341.03352.67364.71377.16390.03403.35415.45
Payout Ratio7.78%24.22%40.67%57.11%73.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.5285.42148.31215.40286.89363.01384.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)79.3380.1080.87
Year 2 PV (M)127.90130.41132.94
Year 3 PV (M)172.49177.59182.80
Year 4 PV (M)213.35221.80230.51
Year 5 PV (M)250.69263.17276.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,282.377,644.918,021.76
Equity Value (M)8,126.128,517.998,925.02
Shares Outstanding (M)855.34855.34855.34
Fair Value$9.50$9.96$10.43
Upside / Downside-11.79%-7.53%-3.12%

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