Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Jiangnan New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (603124.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.23 - $15.88$13.53
Multi-Stage$17.09 - $18.74$17.90
Blended Fair Value$15.71
Current Price$87.15
Upside-81.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.2125.7615.45
Cash Retained (M)132.56132.56132.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.21-25.76-15.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.35106.80117.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.13119.13119.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.900.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.900.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.23$13.53$15.88
Upside / Downside-87.12%-84.48%-81.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.06203.99201.95199.94197.94195.96201.84
Payout Ratio35.67%46.53%57.40%68.27%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.4994.93115.92136.49156.63176.36186.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)85.3686.2487.11
Year 2 PV (M)93.7595.6797.61
Year 3 PV (M)99.26102.33105.46
Year 4 PV (M)102.44106.68111.06
Year 5 PV (M)103.72109.12114.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,551.481,632.271,716.39
Equity Value (M)2,036.012,132.312,232.38
Shares Outstanding (M)119.13119.13119.13
Fair Value$17.09$17.90$18.74
Upside / Downside-80.39%-79.46%-78.50%

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