Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. (603099.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.41 - $122.14$114.47
Multi-Stage$15.56 - $17.03$16.28
Blended Fair Value$65.37
Current Price$45.66
Upside43.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.92%9.89%0.100.020.020.020.080.050.040.090.130.10
YoY Growth--540.00%-13.96%-10.99%-72.98%44.87%18.27%-51.20%-30.43%27.78%160.87%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.07%0.18%0.22%0.88%0.65%0.35%0.75%0.72%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.1618.2310.94
Cash Retained (M)121.44121.44121.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.16-18.23-10.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.28103.21110.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)237.39237.39237.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.41$114.47$122.14
Upside / Downside-22.46%150.69%167.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.80155.28165.37176.12187.57199.76205.75
Payout Ratio16.71%31.37%46.03%60.68%75.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.3648.7176.11106.88141.32179.78190.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.1145.5445.96
Year 2 PV (M)65.2866.5267.78
Year 3 PV (M)84.8987.3389.81
Year 4 PV (M)103.96107.96112.07
Year 5 PV (M)122.48128.40134.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,270.963,428.953,592.99
Equity Value (M)3,692.693,864.704,043.15
Shares Outstanding (M)237.39237.39237.39
Fair Value$15.56$16.28$17.03
Upside / Downside-65.93%-64.35%-62.70%

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