Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ShanDong Cynda Chemical Co.,Ltd (603086.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.57 - $49.57$20.03
Multi-Stage$6.99 - $7.65$7.32
Blended Fair Value$13.68
Current Price$9.23
Upside48.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%36.85%0.030.180.130.130.090.000.030.000.070.05
YoY Growth---85.92%39.99%0.00%39.92%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%50.00%4,114.46%
Dividend Yield--0.47%3.98%1.59%2.46%1.65%0.00%0.30%0.00%1.47%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)153.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.7620.4812.29
Cash Retained (M)153.45153.45153.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.76-20.48-12.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.69132.98141.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)433.45433.45433.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate8.26%8.26%8.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.57$20.03$49.57
Upside / Downside25.30%117.04%437.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.82174.47185.81197.89210.75224.45231.19
Payout Ratio6.33%23.06%39.80%56.53%73.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.3740.2473.95111.87154.41202.01213.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.26%8.26%8.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8237.1737.52
Year 2 PV (M)61.9263.1064.29
Year 3 PV (M)85.7188.1790.68
Year 4 PV (M)108.25112.42116.70
Year 5 PV (M)129.59135.85142.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,609.032,735.052,865.89
Equity Value (M)3,031.333,171.763,317.42
Shares Outstanding (M)433.45433.45433.45
Fair Value$6.99$7.32$7.65
Upside / Downside-24.23%-20.72%-17.08%

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