Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

YAPP Automotive Systems Co., Ltd. (603013.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.41 - $12.49$10.36
Multi-Stage$20.31 - $22.39$21.33
Blended Fair Value$15.84
Current Price$26.00
Upside-39.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.45%10.39%0.450.550.710.720.550.510.140.440.310.07
YoY Growth---17.10%-22.97%-0.93%29.40%7.94%267.29%-68.51%40.86%369.52%-60.25%
Dividend Yield--2.73%3.32%4.55%4.98%4.13%3.44%0.76%2.64%1.87%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)543.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)337.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.6767.9240.75
Cash Retained (M)337.70337.70337.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.67-67.92-40.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)229.03269.78296.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)514.30514.30514.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.920.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-3.19%-2.19%-1.19%
Fair Value$8.41$10.36$12.49
Upside / Downside-67.66%-60.16%-51.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)543.37531.46519.81508.41497.27486.36500.96
Payout Ratio37.85%48.28%58.71%69.14%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.67256.59305.18351.52395.68437.73463.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-3.19%-2.19%-1.19%
Year 1 PV (M)238.38240.85243.31
Year 2 PV (M)263.41268.88274.40
Year 3 PV (M)281.87290.70299.70
Year 4 PV (M)294.76307.13319.89
Year 5 PV (M)302.95318.93335.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,065.689,543.6910,041.65
Equity Value (M)10,447.0610,970.1711,514.52
Shares Outstanding (M)514.30514.30514.30
Fair Value$20.31$21.33$22.39
Upside / Downside-21.87%-17.96%-13.89%

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