Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (601958.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.42 - $188.58$128.47
Multi-Stage$22.60 - $24.74$23.65
Blended Fair Value$76.06
Current Price$15.45
Upside392.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.87%17.00%0.270.300.100.250.300.140.060.020.020.06
YoY Growth---11.07%200.00%-60.00%-16.67%105.95%155.25%162.49%20.61%-67.69%0.55%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.59%0.85%3.75%4.98%2.40%0.79%0.32%0.23%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,074.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,644.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)614.81384.26230.56
Cash Retained (M)2,644.252,644.252,644.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-614.81-384.26-230.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,029.432,259.992,413.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,241.913,241.913,241.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.42$128.47$188.58
Upside / Downside206.90%731.52%1,120.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,074.073,273.883,486.683,713.323,954.684,211.744,338.09
Payout Ratio13.98%29.19%44.39%59.59%74.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.82955.511,547.722,212.872,957.963,790.574,012.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)883.06891.43899.80
Year 2 PV (M)1,321.921,347.101,372.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,746.741,796.891,847.98
Year 4 PV (M)2,157.862,240.842,326.20
Year 5 PV (M)2,555.592,679.032,807.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,601.2767,721.5470,961.22
Equity Value (M)73,266.4576,676.8280,214.91
Shares Outstanding (M)3,241.913,241.913,241.91
Fair Value$22.60$23.65$24.74
Upside / Downside46.28%53.09%60.15%

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