Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. (601601.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.57 - $177.27$124.00
Multi-Stage$122.56 - $134.68$128.50
Blended Fair Value$126.25
Current Price$35.12
Upside259.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.51%7.83%1.351.291.651.301.130.940.991.031.150.70
YoY Growth--4.58%-21.41%26.62%15.01%20.00%-5.05%-3.80%-10.57%64.89%9.88%
Dividend Yield--4.21%5.45%6.35%5.67%2.99%3.34%2.85%3.04%4.21%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52,350.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,649.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)48,701.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,470.006,543.753,926.25
Cash Retained (M)48,701.0048,701.0048,701.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,470.00-6,543.75-3,926.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)38,231.0042,157.2544,774.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,620.009,620.009,620.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.974.384.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.974.384.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.354.765.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$89.57$124.00$177.27
Upside / Downside155.05%253.08%404.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52,350.0053,809.3355,309.3356,851.1558,435.9660,064.9461,866.88
Payout Ratio6.97%23.58%40.18%56.79%73.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,649.0012,686.2622,224.5332,284.7242,888.5354,058.4457,226.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)11,770.1511,885.7912,001.42
Year 2 PV (M)19,130.6619,508.4019,889.83
Year 3 PV (M)25,783.5826,551.0027,333.49
Year 4 PV (M)31,778.7033,046.0534,350.93
Year 5 PV (M)37,162.7039,024.4240,960.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,053,402.051,106,173.911,161,039.84
Equity Value (M)1,179,027.851,236,189.561,295,575.53
Shares Outstanding (M)9,620.009,620.009,620.00
Fair Value$122.56$128.50$134.68
Upside / Downside248.98%265.89%283.47%

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