Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. (601021.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.67 - $407.81$292.40
Multi-Stage$49.41 - $54.09$51.70
Blended Fair Value$172.05
Current Price$53.48
Upside221.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.78%31.77%1.190.570.580.490.190.190.180.130.170.10
YoY Growth--110.88%-3.12%19.32%160.96%-0.02%6.95%33.86%-23.75%75.00%29.92%
Dividend Yield--2.30%0.99%0.93%1.11%0.31%0.58%0.42%0.43%0.49%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,004.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)330.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,673.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)400.84250.53150.32
Cash Retained (M)1,673.521,673.521,673.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-400.84-250.53-150.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,272.671,422.991,523.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)977.38977.38977.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.461.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.461.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.641.791.90
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$104.67$292.40$407.81
Upside / Downside95.71%446.75%662.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,004.222,134.492,273.232,420.992,578.362,745.952,828.33
Payout Ratio16.50%31.20%45.90%60.60%75.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)330.70665.971,043.421,467.121,941.502,471.362,616.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)615.67621.51627.34
Year 2 PV (M)891.77908.75925.90
Year 3 PV (M)1,159.191,192.471,226.38
Year 4 PV (M)1,418.161,472.691,528.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,668.851,749.461,833.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,534.1944,588.6046,721.65
Equity Value (M)48,287.8250,533.4852,863.20
Shares Outstanding (M)977.38977.38977.38
Fair Value$49.41$51.70$54.09
Upside / Downside-7.62%-3.32%1.13%

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