Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Feilo Acoustics Co.,Ltd (600651.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.10 - $0.13$0.11
Multi-Stage$0.28 - $0.31$0.29
Blended Fair Value$0.20
Current Price$8.69
Upside-97.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-39.61%-6.72%0.010.020.030.050.080.130.120.130.120.06
YoY Growth---38.04%-43.61%-34.47%-40.96%-40.59%12.56%-11.75%15.04%110.00%158.76%
Dividend Yield--0.25%0.50%0.83%1.36%2.14%3.62%2.29%1.43%1.12%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.936.213.72
Cash Retained (M)33.1633.1633.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.93-6.21-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.2326.9629.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,442.202,442.202,442.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-8.72%-7.72%-6.72%
Fair Value$0.10$0.11$0.13
Upside / Downside-98.90%-98.70%-98.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.6445.8142.2739.0136.0033.2234.21
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.4820.4123.6426.2428.3129.8931.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-8.72%-7.72%-6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)18.9119.1219.32
Year 2 PV (M)20.2920.7321.19
Year 3 PV (M)20.8621.5622.27
Year 4 PV (M)20.8521.7822.74
Year 5 PV (M)20.4021.5422.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)571.60603.61637.03
Equity Value (M)672.90708.33745.27
Shares Outstanding (M)2,442.202,442.202,442.20
Fair Value$0.28$0.29$0.31
Upside / Downside-96.83%-96.66%-96.49%

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