Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group) Co.,Ltd. (600635.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.98 - $3.14$2.51
Multi-Stage$4.35 - $4.79$4.56
Blended Fair Value$3.54
Current Price$5.87
Upside-39.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.00%0.49%0.120.130.150.160.170.200.160.140.110.08
YoY Growth---8.57%-15.32%-4.06%-6.95%-14.58%23.81%18.61%26.62%38.59%-31.00%
Dividend Yield--3.17%4.47%5.11%4.57%4.30%5.01%2.14%2.79%1.70%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)582.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)427.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.5272.8243.69
Cash Retained (M)427.61427.61427.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.52-72.82-43.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)311.09354.79383.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,953.532,953.532,953.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-1.51%-0.51%0.49%
Fair Value$1.98$2.51$3.14
Upside / Downside-66.22%-57.22%-46.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)582.58579.59576.62573.67570.73567.80584.84
Payout Ratio26.60%39.28%51.96%64.64%77.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.97227.67299.62370.82441.29511.02540.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-1.51%-0.51%0.49%
Year 1 PV (M)211.97214.12216.28
Year 2 PV (M)259.73265.03270.38
Year 3 PV (M)299.29308.50317.89
Year 4 PV (M)331.60345.28359.37
Year 5 PV (M)357.53376.05395.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,380.3111,969.9112,583.71
Equity Value (M)12,840.4213,478.8914,142.96
Shares Outstanding (M)2,953.532,953.532,953.53
Fair Value$4.35$4.56$4.79
Upside / Downside-25.94%-22.25%-18.42%

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