Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. (600618.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.60 - $135.04$126.54
Multi-Stage$249.23 - $273.94$261.35
Blended Fair Value$193.95
Current Price$10.36
Upside1,772.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.88%46.64%0.230.360.400.000.100.120.030.050.060.12
YoY Growth---36.15%-10.00%9,800.21%-95.96%-16.67%242.86%-26.68%-26.19%-46.86%2,333.84%
Dividend Yield--2.32%4.26%4.00%0.03%1.28%1.67%0.37%0.45%0.53%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)793.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)772.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)158.7199.2059.52
Cash Retained (M)772.70772.70772.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-158.71-99.20-59.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)613.99673.51713.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,156.531,156.531,156.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.580.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate-19.79%-19.79%-19.79%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$114.60$126.54$135.04
Upside / Downside1,006.18%1,121.47%1,203.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)793.57836.30881.34928.80978.821,031.531,062.48
Payout Ratio2.63%20.10%37.58%55.05%72.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.86168.12331.18511.32709.90928.38982.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.79%-19.79%-19.79%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)207.62209.61211.60
Year 2 PV (M)505.06514.78524.60
Year 3 PV (M)962.94990.881,019.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,650.971,715.151,781.18
Year 5 PV (M)2,666.272,796.462,931.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)282,254.59296,035.98310,350.49
Equity Value (M)288,247.45302,262.85316,818.90
Shares Outstanding (M)1,156.531,156.531,156.53
Fair Value$249.23$261.35$273.94
Upside / Downside2,305.73%2,422.71%2,544.19%

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