Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co., Ltd. (600313.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.47 - $0.73$0.59
Multi-Stage$0.73 - $0.81$0.77
Blended Fair Value$0.68
Current Price$6.23
Upside-89.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.53%-4.68%0.010.020.020.020.010.020.030.050.040.05
YoY Growth---36.70%-0.76%-21.02%94.85%-49.99%-7.95%-42.48%12.19%-21.25%173.72%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.27%0.19%0.28%0.26%0.58%0.90%1.37%0.69%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.706.694.01
Cash Retained (M)47.7647.7647.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.70-6.69-4.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.0641.0743.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,057.301,057.301,057.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate-0.39%0.61%1.61%
Fair Value$0.47$0.59$0.73
Upside / Downside-92.41%-90.50%-88.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.5053.8354.1654.4954.8255.1656.81
Payout Ratio10.74%26.59%42.44%58.29%74.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.7414.3122.9931.7640.6549.6452.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate-0.39%0.61%1.61%
Year 1 PV (M)13.1013.2413.37
Year 2 PV (M)19.2719.6620.05
Year 3 PV (M)24.3825.1225.88
Year 4 PV (M)28.5629.7330.93
Year 5 PV (M)31.9433.5735.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)658.08691.78726.85
Equity Value (M)775.33813.09852.34
Shares Outstanding (M)1,057.301,057.301,057.30
Fair Value$0.73$0.77$0.81
Upside / Downside-88.23%-87.66%-87.06%

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