Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Huangshan Tourism Development Co.,Ltd. (600054.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.99 - $14.76$9.91
Multi-Stage$10.23 - $11.24$10.73
Blended Fair Value$10.32
Current Price$11.76
Upside-12.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.77%10.86%0.220.010.110.000.110.130.250.190.140.07
YoY Growth--1,981.70%-89.94%38,519.86%-99.75%-17.44%-46.96%28.28%40.94%103.09%-13.66%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.09%0.74%0.00%1.01%1.57%2.05%1.48%0.80%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)283.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)189.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.7235.4521.27
Cash Retained (M)189.95189.95189.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.72-35.45-21.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.23154.50168.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)729.32729.32729.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate1.75%2.75%3.75%
Fair Value$6.99$9.91$14.76
Upside / Downside-40.56%-15.74%25.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)283.60291.39299.39307.62316.07324.75334.49
Payout Ratio33.02%44.42%55.81%67.21%78.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.65129.43167.10206.75248.44292.27309.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate1.75%2.75%3.75%
Year 1 PV (M)120.60121.79122.98
Year 2 PV (M)145.09147.95150.85
Year 3 PV (M)167.27172.25177.33
Year 4 PV (M)187.29194.77202.46
Year 5 PV (M)205.31215.60226.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,637.716,970.377,316.24
Equity Value (M)7,463.277,822.728,196.14
Shares Outstanding (M)729.32729.32729.32
Fair Value$10.23$10.73$11.24
Upside / Downside-12.98%-8.79%-4.44%

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