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KeyHolder, Inc. (4712.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,037.18 - $23,039.12$21,591.03
Multi-Stage$3,176.87 - $3,477.09$3,324.22
Blended Fair Value$12,457.63
Current Price$738.00
Upside1,588.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS15.00%0.00%26.9511.6011.8611.5414.8713.400.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--132.22%-2.12%2.78%-22.43%11.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.65%1.21%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,180.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)698.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,481.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)436.03272.52163.51
Cash Retained (M)1,481.301,481.301,481.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-436.03-272.52-163.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,045.271,208.781,317.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.8218.8218.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.5464.2370.02
LTM Dividend per Share37.1437.1437.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.5464.2370.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend92.68101.37107.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8,037.18$21,591.03$23,039.12
Upside / Downside989.05%2,825.61%3,021.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,180.152,321.862,472.782,633.512,804.692,986.993,076.60
Payout Ratio32.06%43.64%55.23%66.82%78.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)698.851,013.361,365.791,759.772,199.192,688.292,845.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)940.66949.58958.49
Year 2 PV (M)1,176.871,199.281,221.91
Year 3 PV (M)1,407.571,447.971,489.14
Year 4 PV (M)1,632.851,695.651,760.24
Year 5 PV (M)1,852.821,942.312,035.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,775.3355,324.3957,971.02
Equity Value (M)59,786.0962,559.1865,436.03
Shares Outstanding (M)18.8218.8218.82
Fair Value$3,176.87$3,324.22$3,477.09
Upside / Downside330.47%350.44%371.15%

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